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pacino
Senior Member



Canada
722 Posts

Posted - Aug 17 2010 :  8:06:45 PM  Show Profile  Visit pacino's Homepage Send pacino a Private Message  Reply with Quote
now that china is the 2nd largest economy... im wondering when those greedy investors will stop rallying the economy! today the markets rallied 1-2% upward will technically negative news all over the freakin place!

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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Aug 17 2010 :  8:40:21 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Don’t worry too much about it. The breakout when it arrives will be ferocious.

Some time ago I raised concerns about issues inside China, having spent quite a few years working in Asia Pacific a while back gives me the added advantage of knowing people living in these countries, including China.

One of their main concerns is the western worlds expectation of Asia, and in particular China, that it will create enough growth to save the global economy. They don’t share that view as there are bubbles forming inside China due to high growth which despite state intervention have not been brought under control.

The impression I have been given is real estate, stock markets and banks inside China could also be facing major issues but for different reasons than the west. The other concern from them is the reducing western world export market meaning they have to increase domestic demand even faster which can go back to fueling the problems above. May not be as rosy as we thought. Any Chinese downturn which carries over into a domestic market correction would be enough in itself to tip global markets over suddenly.

If we add the true US financial issues into the mix you get the picture of the potential fallout.


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pacino
Senior Member



Canada
722 Posts

Posted - Dec 02 2010 :  9:38:33 PM  Show Profile  Visit pacino's Homepage Send pacino a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Goodbye Benefits… Hello “Interesting” Times

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Don’t they get it?

It’s truly bizarre to me that the powers that be cannot figure out WHY the average American is growing increasingly disenfranchised with how things are going.

Let’s do a quick review of the facts:

1) Food stamp usage at record highs

2) Real unemployment around 17%

3) Food and energy inflation on the rise

4) Incomes and housing prices falling

5) Wall Street bonuses at record highs

6) The Fed continuing to pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the banks while proclaiming a “recovery”

Seriously, a second grader could connect the dots here and see how this will work out (hint: BADLY).

What’s truly strange is to see allegedly educated, intelligent people like Ben Bernanke talk as though the stock market is somehow an economic indicator. I’m sure it’s a great indicator of prosperity if you work at Goldman Sachs or are a corporate insider at a publicly traded company.

However, for those Americans who DON’T have flawless trading records (or stock option grants) stocks have NOTHING to do with your day-to-day activities.

After all, your typical American DOESN’T buy food or pay their mortgage with the profits from their day-trading; they pay with the money they earn from their JOB.

On that note, get ready for some “interesting” times.

I’ve been warning for months that things are going to get “interesting” in the US.

After all, with over 42 million folks on food stamps and millions of others one paycheck away from being homeless, it was only a matter of time before something broke.

In fact it just did.

As of yesterday, people who have been unemployed for more than six months began losing their unemployment benefits. Whether or not you agree with the concept of unemployment they’ve been the one thing keeping millions from homelessness and desperation.

Desperate people do desperate things. And with two million Americans about to lose their benefits this month, desperation is going to be on the rise BIG TIME going forward.


On that note, NOW is the time to be preparing. I’ve been urging my subscribers to stockpile some food, water, cash, and bullion for well over a year now. I do not believe we’re heading into some Mad Max/ Armageddon times, but I DO think that there will be periods of shortages in the US in the future. And those shortages will not be handled well by most folks.

As a personal anecdote, earlier this year the area I live in suffered a severe snow storm that made it difficult for shipping trucks to get in to town. The grocery stores were virtually picked clean within 24 hours. I shudder to think what would have happened if this has lasted more than a day or two.

On that note, if you’ve not already taken steps to prepare yourself and your family, I’ve put together a series of Special Reports detailing the REAL situation in the US financial system and economy today and how to prepare for the inevitable “interesting” times that are fast approaching.

It’s called the Phoenix Investor Personal Protection Kit and the three reports (Protect Your Family, Protect Your Savings, Protect Your Portfolio) cover all the bases in terms of explaining how to prepare these three areas of your life for what’s coming.

To pick up a copy today...


Click here now!!!


Be Careful,


Graham Summers

PS. if you're looking for specific trading ideas to profit from the market during the coming fiasco, I strong urge you to take out a trial subscription to my paid newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

When you subscribe to Private Wealth Advisory you get ALL three of the reports I detailed above as part of your subscription (as well as a fourth report detailing QE 2 and how to profit from it).


But that’s not all. You also get 26 bi-weekly issues featuring my hard hitting analysis of the financial markets and the most profitable investment ideas they offer.

This year alone I've already shown subscribers numerous double-digit winners including gains of 63%, 25%, 25%, 19% and more.

To start receiving my profitable updates as well as the three reports I've detailed in the email above..

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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Dec 03 2010 :  5:11:11 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Very true. Adding to the woes was todays employment numbers which were below expectations and the official rate still flirts just under 10% while the real rate is best part of double as your article mentions.

Once again today a sniff of US domestic bad news sent Gold up around record highs, such is the worry of every little bit of bad news and safe haven buying kicks in. Its becoming a very repetitive cycle.

I also agree the stock market in the US has been the odd thing out, I lost trying to reason (like many others) why the second decline did not start some time ago and is not well under way. There is only one answer - free money being indirectly pumped from the ususal loop.

I think the article above suggests that also. In my experience markets have a way to rebalance the action, and it can happen over time or with a jolt.


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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Dec 08 2010 :  5:48:38 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
A couple of points worth raising.

(1) Once the price increase flows on through the various processes to the consumer, inflation will rise sharply, this we are already seeing. The already stressed out consumer will be hit over and over in cost of living increases. Couple that with US high unemployment and slow growth, you have or will have a very serious situation of no real income growth with increasing cost of living with the potential to rise sharply.

I took a look at some of the commodity price increases today from 12 months ago...

Commodity Agricultural Raw products index up 35%+
Commodity Food Price Index up 17%+
Commodity Metals Price Index up 19%+

The metals you need to make things
Iron Ore +80%
Tin +48%
Nickel +29+
Copper +12%

The products you need to eat
Corn +40%
Barley +19%
Wheat +34%
Soybeans +19%

(2)The US Fed continues to ply the same waters in the same way, with buying more US debt via printing more money. QE been and gone QE2 under way and when that doesn’t work expect QE3 then QE4 then QE5 etc until its bursts as eventually it will no longer work, i.e. they will run out of people willing to buy the Bonds they sell. In the meantime, this approach allows for a rally each time in the markets as free money allows this to happen.

The party can only stop when all the buyers of this debt say enough is enough, it is not worth this anymore. Buyers at that time will desert the markets in droves. And this could still happen in a blink of an eye, at anytime.

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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Dec 13 2010 :  4:42:43 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Today, Moody's has suggested that the US' top credit rating could be reviewed downwards IF the US Government does not handle the tax cuts and unemployment benfits properly.

This is the second time in the last year the US' credit rating has been threatened for possible downgrade.

If the US is downgraded it will have much increased borrowing costs to contend with, as just one new issue in addition to others.

After all the free money thrown about, the end game remains the same it would appear.
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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Dec 20 2010 :  6:09:00 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
As we near the end of CY 2010 one fact worth noting in regards to the US stock market this year has been the lower volume of trade. I was doing my usual data round ups and noticed the glaring volume bars in a somewhat declining trend. For example, the Dow Jones stock volumes are about 5/7ths of last year. And at this rate is challenging the lowest volume rate for the decade. Why would that be? Lighter volumes on a market drifting higher is not good news, usually suggesting bigger players have been deleveraging for a while, holding less and less stock and more cash or equivalents. Maybe the cash stimulus programs aren’t still getting anywhere near the traction Obama & co hoped for by this time.
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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Dec 21 2010 :  8:05:48 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
This could be posted in either the social upheavel or the market forums, thought I'd post it here as it refers to US debt etc.

$2tn debt crisis threatens to bring down 100 US cities

'Overdrawn American cities could face financial collapse in 2011, defaulting on hundreds of billions of dollars of borrowings and derailing the US economic recovery. Nor are European cities safe – Florence, Barcelona, Madrid, Venice: all are in trouble'

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pacino
Senior Member



Canada
722 Posts

Posted - Dec 21 2010 :  8:10:47 PM  Show Profile  Visit pacino's Homepage Send pacino a Private Message  Reply with Quote
just saw that article.. and came here to post it ;) but u got there first Halifax ! And not only those 100 cities could face financial collapse in 2011, but its more likely that the entire Economical System Collapses World wide as we have been expecting since 2009.

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pacino
Senior Member



Canada
722 Posts

Posted - Dec 31 2010 :  1:49:22 PM  Show Profile  Visit pacino's Homepage Send pacino a Private Message  Reply with Quote
End Game: The Euro As a Concept Is "Finished"

Graham’s note: The following is an excerpt from my paid newsletter Private Wealth Advisory, explaining in plain terms how the Euro situation will play out after the holidays.

Indeed, I just notified subscribers of Private Wealth Advisory of five trades that will all explode when the Euro finally rolls over. I fully expect ALL of these trades to be up in the double digits before the end of January 2011. This is nothing new for us, we’ve seen gains 10%, 11%, and 13% in the last month alone.



To find out more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you make REAL money with the markets… CLICK HERE NOW!

Thanks to the blizzard, holidays, and so forth, EVERYTHING that occurs in the markets this week is largely irrelevant. Once the holidays end, we’ll be back to reality in short notice.

What’s reality?

The reality is that situation in Europe has literally reached a fever pitch. We have now progressed to the “contagion” point in which the entire system is at risk versus individual countries. To whit, Ireland has only just been bailed out and already Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Belgium.

What’s truly odd is the fact that anyone is surprised by this turn of events. We played out this exact same drama from 2007-2008 in the US. Throughout 2007 to 2008 Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson assured us that the Financial Crisis was largely “contained” and would not “spill over” into the US economy.

This charade was maintained even as contagion spread. I recall (as I’m sure you do) that with each successive bailout the problems were deemed solved. At one point we had weekly proclamations that “the worst [was] over” from various Wall Street CEOs.

Then the whole thing came crashing down.

The clear conclusions to draw from that period in the US are:

1) Each successive bailout will produce smaller and smaller effects until systemic risk hits all at once

2) The world’s central banks are in fact powerless to stop systemic risk once contagion hits

3) The powers that be will do everything they can to maintain the illusion of control despite the clear fact contagion is spreading

4) To the unthinking masses, things will appear to be alright right until we’re literally in the eye of the storm

We now see the same drama unfolding in Europe. It is clear to anyone with a thinking brain that Greece, Ireland and the like will never pay their debts off. Moreover, the European Central Bank (ECB) will not be able to do anything to stop the now accelerating collapse.

Indeed, consider that while Greece and the ECB proclaimed “all is well” for five months, the Euro nose-dived from December (when Greece first caught headlines) until June when the ECB announced a $1 trillion bailout.

This $1 trillion bailout kicked off a relief rally from June to early November. However, at that point it was clear that:

1) The European situation was much, much bigger than just one country

2) $1 trillion would not be adequate to solve the problem

Since then, the Euro has begun to breakdown in a major way. Timing this breakdown will not be easy. The powers that be will do all they can to intervene and attempt to stop this from happening. However, these interventions ultimately do nothing to change the big picture.

The big picture is that the Euro is on the verge of entering a “systemic risk” period similar to what happened in the US in Autumn 2008. This period will feature accelerating contagion combined with panic selling that will push the Euro down to test its June 2010 low and potentially break it. The long-term Euro chart makes this clear:



This break-down in the Euro will coincide with a rally in the US Dollar and a drop in stocks and commodities across the board. It this sounds like 2008 all over again, you’re right, we’ve essentially re-entered that exact environment.

The only difference is that after the collapse is finished, investors will then set their sites on the US Dollar as the next currency to fall. That’s when inflation will accelerate as the US Dollar collapses, destroying purchasing power while inflation hedges EXPLODE higher.

Some, like the most popular picks (Gold an Silver bullion) will records strong gains.
However, others, (the ones that 99.9% of the investment world are currently clueless about), will go absolutely parabolic.

On that note, I recently detailed three such investments in a Special Report titled, The Inflationary Storm. Already they’re up 1%, 3%, and 10%... in just two weeks.

After all, everyone knows that Gold and Silver are the most obvious inflation hedges out there. And to be blunt, anyone who invests in these two assets will likely do very well in the coming months as inflation erupts in the US.

However, to make truly ENORMOUS gains from inflation, you need to find the
investments that are off the radar... investments that the rest of the investment world hasn't discovered yet.

I'm talking about investments that own assets of TREMENDOUS value that are currently priced at absurdly low valuations: the sorts of assets that larger companies will pay obscene premiums to acquire.

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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Jan 19 2011 :  5:25:15 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
With all the free money supplied during 2010, the Dow did manage to get through the 11,000 barrier and stay there for the last couple of months, be it on thinnner than usual volume and not moving up at any speed, and still sitting 20% under its record highs.

But various reports Ive read recently confirm what I already speculated about, the free money (QE, QEII ect) are having less and less impact, matter of fact really nothing more than adding trillions to the debt of the US, after all this week, it has been revealed China now owns about half of US Treasuries. To the layman that means nothing, but put simply, another signifcant indicatior America is in deep ****, financially.

How long the Central Banks continue to win this war of propping up the stock markets in US and Europe is anyones quess, but I would speculate 2011 will not be as good an outcome for them as 2010. With much higher debt and several European countries on the brink of folding financially, the free run of free money and waving magic wands creating illusions may be coming to an end.

When this happens, and it is inevitable, the long awaited next leg of the decline must occur, That there is no escaping. The straw that breaks the camels back and triggers off the enxt slide is the only thing unknown at the moment. At a minimum we should be watching closely for major signs of cracking.

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mm2001
Forum Admin



USA
1126 Posts

Posted - Jan 19 2011 :  10:29:22 PM  Show Profile  Visit mm2001's Homepage Send mm2001 a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Many Arab countries and Iran are now saying a surge above $100/barrel for oil is likely and do-able. Meantime, the jockeying for potential regional war keeps shifting between North Korea, Iran, and Israel-Hamas-Hazbollah or a really bad civil war in Iraq (round and round and round she goes, where she'll stop, nobody knows).

If it is ultimately Iran, it may begin in the form of an Iranian oil blockade or sustained Iranian attacks on oil shipping (in addition to skyrocketing oil prices from Saudi Arabia and the Arab gulf countries). I have predicted that this may start happening in June 2011.

Add to this mix perhaps a now overdue Muqtada al-Sadr-led Shi'a civil war against the Maliki-Talabani-Allawi government in Iraq, with military aid from Ali Khomenei and Ahmadinejad in Iran and Bashar Assad in Syria (or Rifaat Assad if Bashar is toppled), and another major civil war in Lebanon in May 2011 that draws in Israel. Indeed, it may be civil war in Lebanon that leads to Bashar Assad's overthrow and Rifaat's installation.

This would force US and European troops to build up again in colossal measure in much of the Middle East (which will cost a lot of money). And of course, meantime, that Vietnam in Central Asia, Afghanistan-Pakistan, continues to suck in money from the US economy for the military effort there.

Any or all of the above I would say should be enough to cause the bottom to fall out of the propped-up US economy in July or August of this year. Of course, an already dire international economy in many European countries would become much, much worse, especially in the UK ... thus, one might then see real civil wars and real revolutions with a lot of bloodshed break out in places like France, Italy, Britain, Germany, Greece, and the like. What we see in Tunisia, Algeria, Mauritanius, western Sahara, and potentially Egypt and Jordan now will occur all over Europe, and it will be much, much nastier (think 1793 and 1917).

The effect all of this will have on Russia is also difficult to assess. Imagine your major client state and ally in the Middle East attacking oil shipping and attempting to enforce a blockade? Russia needs Iran as assuredly as Iran needs Russia ... what will it do? Will it turn against its ally, ignore its ally, or support its ally? With skyrocketing oil prices and military intimidation in the oil supply routes of the Persian Gulf, how much more jealously will Moscow guard its oil assets in the Caspian Sea? Another war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would definitely begin a series of contests between the US/Nato and Russia in Eastern Europe and Transcaucasia. Georgia is the misdirection; it is Armenia and Azerbaijan that needs to be watched.

Also, because there is a growing number of Russians who would like to see Putin out of office, a major war in the Caspian Sea region and Transcaucasia, one between Moscow and Nato/US, one that threatens to move into Ukraine, Moldavia, Belarus, etc., would also increase the chances of a major revolution or civil war inside of Russia itself. This at the same time major revolutions are already in progress in France, Italy, Germany, Britain, and the like.

Because things are already as bad as they are now, any chance at a recovery in 2012 or 2013 will not likely happen, and if the world is still not yet involved in a global war by 2014 it will be when all the money finally runs out and a super-crash the likes of which we have never seen in the history of economics takes place in autumn 2014.

I realise 2014 is some distance off and many people today doubt we will be alive, let alone have any kind of functioning economy, beyond the Mayan end date of 21 December 2012 ... but I have to be honest about my projections.

Yes, I see great danger of world war beginning subtly this year (a blockade is considered an act of war, but can go on for many months even a few years before turning into a real shooting war), and a major Middle East war starting either in January or December 2012 leading to a global conflict by summer or fall of 2013 ... but if I am wrong in my war projections again, as I was for 2009, or if the war lasts for four years before a climax that destroys 2/3 to 3/4 of the world's population, as some European prophecies indicate (2012-2016? or 2013-2017?), then, if no war is in progress, we shall see a very shaky peace struck from the skies by the 2014 crash ... and if a great war is in progress, but not yet involving WMD, whatever the conditions of warfare are at the time will escalate dramatically, bringing about the use of nuclear weapons in 2015.

"Cast a cold eye
On life, on death,
Horseman, pass by!"

-- William Butler Yeats
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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Jan 27 2011 :  5:19:25 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Hi Mike

I know we discussed the topic of Oil on these forums in past years quite extensively so some of my comments are repetitive, but I think worth covering once again. Despite all the spin about Oil reserves and new discoveries, the simple bold truth is we can only count Oil that is accessible and shippable easily and safely. The Gulf Oil spill highlight the extra difficulty factors involved when getting Oil out of complex situations, the costs are much higher and harder to retrieve and ship while increasing environmental risks at the same time. Deep sea reserves near Brazil, heavy Oil in Venezuela, tar sands in Canada, Oil under ice etc can all be talked about but much harder to convert economically into a safe shippable reliable supply. That gets us back to the same old problem; The Middle East has most of the Oil available to the western world now. Norway is the only top western producer remaining that has significant excess to export. Russia is noted as being the top producer in the last year or so but that cant be verified, and even so they just opened a new pipeline to China last year pumping huge amounts of export Oil directly to them, so no real western access there. We are back to the Middle East. The power players know the score, Control the Middle East, either through force or alliance, and you have the western world at your mercy, at this moment, because the western world did not make significant progress in alternative energy sources in a timely manner. Oil producers are happy with the $75-85 range for the easy access Oil as they make reasonable profits, but to extract the difficult Oil and carry out more intensive exploration now requires Oil above $100 as you point out. Oil was about $100 before, as we discussed on here when it was occurring at the time, and the fallout economically started to show not only across America but Western Europe. Fundamental reasons as mentioned above put together paint a picture for Oil to go past its previous highs, Technical analysis certainly points to Oil going past its previous record highs. We should be thinking about the next Oil surge to be beyond $200 if there is any significant restriction to Middle East supplies. This will, as you point out, hit the economy with increased costs.

The other big issue is US debt. We are hitting around the 14 Trillion mark and have almost reached the ceiling, approvals will be required in the next couple of months to lift the allowable debt ceiling. No approval would mean USA is in default. Approval means more of the same, USA going further and further into debt that can t be repaid. The world is growing increasingly restless with loose US fiscal policy, if the tide really turns there will be a decreasing number of parties willing to take on the debt leaving the US in a corner, so to speak. The free money that has artificially extended the US stock markets stability cannot last forever. 2010 was the escape trick but 2011 will get ugly at some point, but it may not be the final nail on the coffin, that could be a few years away as you point out, maybe even another 5 years, time will tell. I still remain confident that when the musical chairs game stops, be it this year, next year, a few years time, people will witness the Dow Jones down into the range I posted a couple years back, i.e. below the 3000 level. It will happen as certain as night follows day. The true timing has been altered due to extensive games being played to maintain a ridiculous situation, but markets always eventually catch up to reality, sometimes in a slow grinding fashion, other times with a thud.

Until the US administration and the US Federal Reserve accept the true situation and take appropriate action, the outcome cannot change. However, voluntary austerity plans do not appear on the radar, so it will be forced austerity that will come into play at some time due to increased significant cost of living.

Years ago when we were talking about these things coming there was little coverage elsewhere, now if you look about on the internet there are sites everywhere about the pending economic doom, some are listing out fact after fact about the true state of the economy. And the facts are quite clear, they are showing up the cracks, and the cracks are getting bigger and bigger, Politicians such as Obama spruiking spin is nothing short of a joke. There is no substance. America economically is done for, all the crossroads of opportunity to rectify the major issues have been let go. Wasted opportunities. Once great cities and states are crumbling and services cut. What a mess. However, nothing is surprising us because all of us on here should have been expecting it.



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mm2001
Forum Admin



USA
1126 Posts

Posted - Jan 27 2011 :  11:18:42 PM  Show Profile  Visit mm2001's Homepage Send mm2001 a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Hi Halifax,

When confronted with the dilemma in 2008 of whether the presidential candidate would be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, I could not decide. That is because the base 7 system indicated a "first" of certain kind of candidate would be elected: Ronald Reagan being the first Hollywood actor and oldest candidate in history in 1980.

Thus, in 2008, we were confronted with a choice of "firsts": the first female president in US history or the first black president in US history. It could have gone either way, so my predictions for Hillary dissolved before my eyes as this "dark horse" (absolutely no pun intended here, seriously) ran up from behind to win the Belmont (just like the first Triple Crown winner since 1979 failed to happen in another prediction I made for 2008 .. but in that case Big Brown's right hoof was not properly shod and thusly had a bum foot, so the race appears to have been rigged).

Anyway, to come to the point: Is it possible Obama can pull a Reagan out of his hat? Everyone laughed at Reagan's voodoo economics, but they mysteriously worked (just like magic!) and brought the nation and the world out of recession. And likewise, if Obama now follows in the path of Reagan, will we see a new cycle of 28 years of relative peace? (even now, we can still say we are not in world war).

The reason I wonder about this has to do with the following article:


The Role Model: What Obama Sees in Reagan - January 27, 2011

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In May 2010, Barack Obama invited a small group of presidential historians to the White House for a working supper in the Family Dining Room. It was the second time he'd had the group in since taking office, and as he sat down across the table from his wife Michelle, the President pressed his guests for lessons from his predecessors. But as the conversation progressed, it became clear to several in the room that Obama seemed less interested in talking about Lincoln's team of rivals or Kennedy's Camelot than the accomplishments of an amiable conservative named Ronald Reagan, who had sparked a revolution three decades earlier when he arrived in the Oval Office. Obama and Reagan share a number of gifts but virtually no priorities. And yet Obama was clearly impressed by the way Reagan had transformed Americans' attitude about government. The 44th President regarded the 40th, said one participant, as a vital "point of reference." Douglas Brinkley, who edited Reagan's diaries and attended the May dinner, left with a clear impression that Obama had found a role model. "There are policies, and there is persona, and a lot can be told by persona," he says. "Obama is approaching the job in a Reaganesque fashion."

When Obama stood before Congress, the Cabinet and the American people to deliver his second State of the Union address, both the Reagan persona and policies put in appearances. He proposed a freeze in discretionary spending and federal salaries, a push to simplify the tax code and billions in cuts to the defense budget, and he made new calls for a bipartisan effort to repair Social Security. Each of these had been proposed before by another third-year President coming off a midterm defeat in a period of high unemployment. "Let us, in these next two years — men and women of both parties, every political shade — concentrate on the long-range, bipartisan responsibilities of government," Reagan said in his 1983 State of the Union, "not the short-range or short-term temptations of partisan politics."

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"Cast a cold eye
On life, on death,
Horseman, pass by!"

-- William Butler Yeats
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halifax
Advanced Member



835 Posts

Posted - Jan 28 2011 :  6:18:01 PM  Show Profile Send halifax a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Hi Mike

I understand your alternative option and anything is possible but at the end of the day, the decade of 1980’s was fueled by increased credit, which eventually led to the 1987 crash. The debt base of 1980 was insignificant and not as issue so by ensuring easy credit to create a boom was simply straightforward. However today Obama is trying to reignite something but with the baggage of huge increasing debt, part of which he has contributed in 2009 & 2010 by taking national debt from 10.5 to almost 14 Trillion since taking office. I understand from a base 7 perspective the link between Reagan and Obama and as you point out and there could be a ‘miracle’ – I only use that word because I cant think of any other to describe a situation where Obama would be able to produce something magical to improve the US economic situation to a point where it would make a real difference.

I think this may be the era when the true conflict of interest between the Federal Reserve and the Government comes to a head. One needs to lend more and more money to make more money (increase govt debt) and the other needs to borrow less and less money (reduce Fed Res income). The Govt is really the public and the Fed Res the corporation. For Obama to pull off a true magical trick or miracle through unorthodox economic policy it could be taking on the Fed Res system and actually changing the arrangement going forward. However, the outstanding debt would be an issue. Maybe going into default taking the pain then starting again with govt control of its own (public) finances would be the best approach. But for this happen a huge reduction in spending, a significant reduction in standard of living would have to occur to get to a reference point to start over. But the current system is sending America broke and shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic doesn’t provide one with a better position of coming events. Obama is going to need a strong head and heart with plenty of courage to take on this system if he is serious.





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