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halifax
Senior Member
553 Posts |
 Posted - Nov 26 2006 : 6:51:12 PM
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Jordan's King Abdullah is warning that the Middle East could soon be engulfed in violence, saying three separate civil wars may be about to erupt in the region, including in Iraq. The situation in the ME is getting worse. Soem of Mike predictions have already come to pass and now the regions problems look like going to the next level. Here's the link-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200611/s1797914.htm
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halifax
Senior Member
553 Posts |
Posted - Jul 09 2007 : 7:18:19 PM
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As Iraq is in a mess, and technically in a 'civil war' already, it is interesting to note the latest news concerning the region.
First the US govt has admitted the Iraqi forces have not met any of the objectives set by the US to plan a handover/withdrawal and secondly Turkey once again is becoming impatient with the Northern Iraq situation and the US' lack of progress. They want to, once again, go into Iraq to fight their own 'war on terror'.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070709/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_iraq;_ylt=Agza3U_.poYqPur8x8ufx2Ks0NUE
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070709/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_iraq_border;_ylt=ArLLrnezvzcRXcFXTAWgbKPMWM0F
Could these latest developments be a sign for the further expansion of the Middle East crisis? With spot conflicts (wars) all over the ME involving Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran (through stealth), Afghanistan etc, adding Turkey into the mix certainly must raise alarm as per Mike's previous predictions.
Also Turkish forces coming across US forces in opposing directions could increase the number of friendly fire casualties which would add more pressure to President Bush having to justify the Iraq situation.
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halifax
Senior Member
553 Posts |
Posted - Jul 09 2007 : 10:58:14 PM
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Furthermore Syria has apparently asked it's citizens in Lebanon to leave before July 15 on speculation of a conflict.
http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070709-105913-5509r
Interesting, as the Turkish elections were brought forward to July 22 so any conflict into Northern Iraq is speculated to occur after that time.
In addition (Mike already posted the news article) that Israel is expecting conflict anytime soon with up to 5 enemies.
The boundary between what is civil war and outright war between countries is becoming blurred.
So, should we expect a major shift and escalation in the entire ME conflict this month?
Also, if the US and/or Israel were to attack Iran, in July, the ME would truly be one big powder keg going off in all directions. Groups within countries fighting each other while at the same time whole countries also fighting each other - could be a lot of confusion.
Mike - any comment on the latest developments? |
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mm2001
Forum Admin
USA
869 Posts |
Posted - Jul 10 2007 : 12:06:59 AM
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Hi Halifax,
It is rather difficult to comment at this point. There has been considerable jockeying of conflicts and potential conflicts in the ME for several years now since the US invaded Iraq.
Turkey has threatened to move on northern Iraq I don't know how many times since 2003. In some cases it actually has crossed the border and engaged the PKK for a few days. On one occasion Turkey and Iran together pounded Kurdish targets in northern Iraq. Turkey plays a dangerous alliance game, having a mutual defence pact with Israel since 1997 on the one hand and working with Israel's bitter enemy, Iran, against the Kurds on the other.
Some conflicts we have often worried about have materialised, been fought, and then ended. Concern of a full-blown Israeli war on its northern front has occurred twice now since 9-11: once in March and April 2002 and again, much much worse, in July and August 2006. Israel even struck targets in Syria in 2003 and overflew Assad's Damascus palace in 2006; still war with Syria was avoided. Also, as predicted by me to happen during the month of May 2007, Lebanon had its "civil war" ... and now it is over after one month.
And throughout this, ever since early 2005, has been the spectre of a US or Israeli war with Iran that never quite seems to happen. Meanwhile low level war in Afghanistan has escalated and now moves in and out of media notice as regularly as the war in Iraq (just as my dreams showed me back in the mid-1990s; still Iran awaits to be added to the list to complete some of these dreams as does war between Turkey and Iraq and Turkey and Iran).
Syria is reportedly making dangerous moves and preparing for conflict with Israel. But I have to tell you, I have been reading and hearing reports like these periodically ever since 1997.
All I can do is stick with the base 7 vectors I have. Yes, Israel and Syria are going to go to war. What will likely begin as a series of border clashes beginning in spring or summer of 2008 will lead to all out war between the two adversaries sometime between October 2008 and June 2009.
Personally, I believe the great ME war, involving many nations in the region, will probably begin around October 2008 and reach a climax in either July/August 2009 or as late as November 2009.
Yet everything seems to be moving in that direction this autumn, 2007, rather than autumn 2008, doesn't it?
Nevertheless, I think things will move a bit more slowly. Let us not forget Pakistan is in and out of civil war and seems to be slowly coming under control of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. God knows what will happen to Pakistan's relationship to India if Musharraf is overthrown by Qaeda/Taliban. Sometimes the worse things happen where you least expect it (although I expected a full-blown Pak civil war to topple Musharraf and later go to war with India in 2006; not 2007).
Lebanon and Gaza are now working on being the latest additions to the quagmire list of Iraq and Afghanistan. It now looks like Iran might not be added to the same list until Hillary is elected or inaugurated.
Nevertheless, as we know, some of my projections have occurred early this year, as much as 9 months to over a year premature. Others have been dead on, and some, as usual, have been a bit late.
It is the premature ones that worry me. I have never seen quite this many happen prematurely as have been occurring since December 2006. The later we get into this year, the greater the risk that the great ME war I have predicted will break out in October 2008 could, instead, break out this autumn. Even the death of Anna Nicole Smith happened a lot earlier than I was preparing to post. I already had discussed on my site that after the death of her son Daniel I feared she might not live beyond June 2009. SHE DIED IN FEBRUARY 2007! That is 2 years and 4 monhs earlier than I was prepared to project.
So, something strange is happening here I cannot account for. Yes; we should be prepared to see widening wars in the ME. Why will Russia invade Turkey in November 2007 (if that prediction happens) unless it is because Turkey goes to war with Moscow's ally, Iran, perhaps stemming somehow from a mutual war in northern Iraq? Why will Russia "re-invade" Afghanistan in December 2007 (again, if I am right) unless it is because Karzai has a falling out with Nato and the US handling of the war against the "new" Taliban and invites the Russians in and kicks Nato out?
"Cast a cold eye
On life, on death,
Horseman, pass by!"
-- William Butler Yeats |
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halifax
Senior Member
553 Posts |
Posted - Jul 11 2007 : 6:15:33 PM
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Mike - I don't know if there is any relevance here, but in regards to Syria, here is another twist to the equation. China is now Syria's biggest trading partner and is planning more business investment in Syria, as this latest article outlines.
If US and/or Israel bomb Syria and Chinese interests/people become casualties that is not going to be a stable situation for Chinese/American relations.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/11/content_5432237.htm |
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halifax
Senior Member
553 Posts |
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halifax
Senior Member
553 Posts |
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mm2001
Forum Admin
USA
869 Posts |
Posted - Jul 21 2007 : 6:19:40 PM
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Hey Halifax,
Well, Pakistan has been flirting with civil war since last year. I initially predicted that Pakistan would enter into a full-blown civil war in 2006 and that Al Qaeda would overthrow Musharraf and be at war with India by December 2006 over Kashmir.
This still has not happened yet, but the civil war is getting closer all the time.
So too is the turnaround by the "new" Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan that will eventually overthrow the Karzai regime and ally with Iran. If the US and Nato are driven out by Karzai because he is angry with the high civilian death toll or thinks another power can do a better job, expect to see Russia move in at Karzai's request. If the Taliban/Qaeda take control, Russia will either move in to drive them out so they can take control of the region or else ally with them and provide them with military support (I would suspect an alliance will occur if the Taliban/Qaeda ally with Ahmadinejad in Iran).
Turkey has numerous base 7 vectors for a war with Iraq due to the many times it has moved in to attack PKK rebel Kurds over the past 15 years or so. The largest and longest operation in northern Iraq took place during the administration of Tansu Ciller, Turkey's only female president. It was in March 1995 and the fighting got so bad that a news blackout was declared and enforced. CNN was no longer allowed in to cover the war. It ended in May 1995: the same month Nato began it first air attacks on the Bosnian Serbs (after striking three targets, UN peacekeepers were taken hostage; this delayed a much larger and ultimately successful air campaign by Nato until late August and September 1995).
Anyway, the next time this vector for the largest Turkish operation in northern Iraq comes up again is not until March-May 2009.
However, September 1980 saw the start of the Iran-Iraq War. Today, Iraq is being positioned by the Shi'a community to become Iran's eventual ally. We should be careful though not to dismiss the possibility of another Iran-Iraq War breaking out in September 2008: this time to aid one faction in Iraq during a civil war against another faction as well as to attack US occupation forces.
Otherwise, September 2008 could very well mark the beginning of the Turko-Iranian War that Nostradamus warns will come. He also warns that Turkey will lose and Iran will use Turkey to overrun the southern Balkans. Obviously, I would not expect a Turko-Iranian War to last eight years like the Iran-Iraq War did.
The other Turkey vector is November 2007; but this is for a Russian invasion of Turkey (this vector was established back in World War I). One must ask: why would Russia attack Turkey in November 2007? The only logical reasons might be 1) anger and alarm if Turkey is teamed up with Israel in her war with Syria and teamed up with the US in Iraq or 2) Turkey is at war with Russia's ally Iran over an altercation that occurs when both move in to attack Kurds in northern Iraq (as they have a few times briefly aleady).
Those are the three near future vectors. The reasons why these vectors may (or may not) witness the fulfillment of a prediction based on past events we can only speculate about.
"Cast a cold eye
On life, on death,
Horseman, pass by!"
-- William Butler Yeats |
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halifax
Senior Member
553 Posts |
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Civil war on three fronts in the Middle East?
